By James Byrd
Yesterday was apparently a busy day in blogdom. My RSS reader (I use RSS Bandit for those who wonder about these things) was filled with new entries from several of the bloggers I monitor. Two were of particular interest.
Seth Godin wrote about his thoughts on the Kindle:
Seth Godin's Kindle Blog Entry
Dr. Lynn Osterkamp (the Populist Publisher) wrote about the wastefulness of the current book returns system in the publishing industry:
Dr. Lynn Osterkamp's Blog Entry on Book Returns
When you put these two topics together, it gets you thinking. Suppose the Kindle really is the future of reading? The waste involved in the physical book returns system would vanish. Would you even be able to return a book that you electronically downloaded? How would that affect book sales?
I have to say that there won't be a Kindle in this house any time soon. For one thing the pricing of the device itself ($360) and of the books ($10 each) is outrageous. For another, its fancy new delivery system depends upon cellular technology. We barely get a cell signal at our house, and even then, only if we stand on the back deck in just the right place. When it's 10 degrees outside, I'm not much interested in walking onto the deck to find and acquire a book.
Finally, books have to be specifically converted to Kindle format. That means you can only get a limited number of titles right now, and pretty much only the new stuff. Sure, more books will be converted over time, but only after the device proves itself. And if it proves itself, competitors will start to appear and we'll have some kind of formatting standards war. Either that, or publishers will just have to produce their books in multiple formats. Ah, the joys of technology.
So what does all this mean to the book industry? Here are a few ideas (some are in progress now) based on electronic reading devices becoming popular and the returns system being eliminated:
- Say goodbye to the mom and pop bookstore. They are already dropping like flies because the Big Box stores in the book industry are destroying their profitability. Electronic book delivery will eat into their market further, and the inability to return books will make it even more impossible to compete with the Big Box stores.
- The antiquated and ridiculously wasteful returns system will go away, even for physical books. It is already being eroded by print-on-demand books when the publisher has decided to not allow returns. Even if returns are allowed in some way with electronic books, the return won't require the transport and disposition of a physical book.
- Brick-and-mortar sales of physical books will be relegated to Big Box stores that will adopt the Wal*Mart attitude and carry nothing but the books that are more or less guaranteed to sell. Remainders (unsold books) will eventually be sold off to a wholesaler, and you'll probably see a slight increase in the number of those "warehouse" book stores that sell books no one wants at a high discount. Small booksellers will only survive in tight niche markets where they offer a variety of titles on a particular subject, but carry as few as possible in stock.
- Strong Kindle competitors will appear, which will drive down the price of the devices and the books.
- The standards community will cry out for a standard digital book format that will take years to appear and end up being based on what Amazon (or more likely, Microsoft!) was doing anyway.
- Right now, Amazon has a huge advantage with regard to selling physical books. Their massive sales, inventory, and delivery system took years to become profitable. Their advantage will disappear along with the barriers-to-entry in selling books online when the books go digital. Suddenly, Amazon will have lots of competitors who had to spend way less money to get started.
- Protection of copyright through Digital Rights Management will become a hot issue for authors and publishers trying to protect their profits. The big book publishers will find themselves in the same boat as the big record companies.
- Non-fiction books will become modular. This is something authors should be thinking about now. Just as iTunes lets you download just one song from an album (unless it's a song you really want, then you have to buy the whole album of course), readers will want the option of buying just a portion of a book that relates to the specific problem they are trying to solve. O'Reilly's Safari web site is leading the charge on this concept.
I could keep going, but I think you get the idea.
Self-publishers are at a tremendous advantage as the industry evolves because we can react instantly to whatever happens. For us, the technology is just a tool. The service providers we rely upon are the ones who have the hard job. You need me to publish my book in a new format? Fine. I'll have it for you later today.